Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling - Volume II: Technical Papers

This volume, second in the series, provides essential background material for policy analysts, researchers, statisticians, and others interested in the application of microsimulation techniques to develop estimates of the costs and population impacts of proposed changes in government policies, ranging from welfare to retirement income to health care to taxes. The material spans data inputs to models, design and computer implementation of models, validation of model outputs, and model documentation.

PANEL TO EVALUATE MICROSIMULATION MODELS FOR SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS

• ERIC A. HANUSHEK (Chair), Department of Economics, University of Rochester
• DAVID M. BETSON, Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame
• LYNNE BILLARD, Department of Statistics, University of Georgia
• SHELDON DANZIGER, Institute of Public Policy Studies, University of Michigan
• EUGENE P. ERICKSEN, Department of Sociology, Temple University
• THOMAS J. ESPENSHADE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
• HARVEY GALPER, KPMG Peat Marwick, Washington, D.C.
• LOUIS GORDON, Department of Mathematics, University of Southem Califomia
• KEVIN M. HOLLENBECK, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, Mich.
• GORDON H. LEWIS, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University
• ROBERT MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Brown University
• GAIL R. WILENSKY, Health Care Financing Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services [served until January 1990]
• MICHAEL C. WOLFSON, Analyfical Studies Branch, Statistics Canada
  • CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
  • MICHAEL L. COHEN, Consultant
  • CHRISTINE M. ROSS, Research Associate
  • AGNES E. GASKIN, Administrative Secretary

CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
DATABASES AND METHODS OF DATA ENHANCEMENT
1	Databases for Microsimulation: A Comparison of the March CPS and SIPP Constance F Citro
2	Statistical Matching and Microsimulation Models Michael L. Cohen
MODEL DESIGN
3	Alternative Model Designs: Program Participation Functions and the Allocation of Annual to Monthly Values in TRIM2, MATH, and MTSM Constance F. Citro and Christine M. Ross
4	DYNASIM and PRISM: Examplcs of Dynamic Modeling Christine M. Ross
COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY
5	Future Computing Environments for Microsimulation Modeling Paul Cotton and George Sadowsky
MODEL VALIDATION
6	Variance Estimation of Microsimulation Models Through Sample Reuse Michael L. Cohen
7	Evaluations of Microsimulation Models: Literature Review Michael L. Cohen
8	A Validation Experiment With TRIM2 Michael L. Cohen, Lynne Billard, David M. Betson, and Eugene P. Ericksen
9	Evaluating the Accuracy of U.S. Population Projection Models Laurence Grummer-Strawn and Thomas J. Espenshade
MODEL DOCUMENTATION
10	Documentation for Microsimulation Models: TRIM2, MATH, and HITSM Kevin M. Hollenbeck