Editor/s:
Constance F. Citro, Eric A. Hanushek
Published Date:
1997
Publication:
Washington, DC: National Academy Press
Pages:
256 pages
The retirement income security of older Americans and the cost of providing that security are increasingly the subject of major debate. This volume assesses what we know and recommends what we need to know to estimate the short- and long-term effects of policy alternatives. It details gaps in data and research and evaluates possible models to estimate the impact of policy changes that could affect retirement income from Social Security, pensions, personal savings, and other sources.
PANEL ON RETIREMENT INCOME MODELING
- ERIC A. HANUSHEK (Chair), W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, University of Rochester
- HENRY AARON, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
- ALAN J. AUERBACH, Department of Economics, University of Califomia, Berkeley
- CHRISTOPHER BONE, Actuarial Sciences Associates, Somerset, New Jersey
- PETER DIAMOND, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- MICHAEL HURD, Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook
- OLIVIA S. MITCHELL, Department of Insurance and Risk Management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
- SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
- JOHN P. RUST, Department of Economics, Yale University
- TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING, Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University
- JAMES P. SMITH, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
- CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
- NANCY L. MARITATO, Research Associate
- CANDICE S. EVANS, Project Assistant
| CONTENTS | ||
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS | ||
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | ||
| 1. | INTRODUCTION | |
| Retirement Income Security | 11 | |
| The Report | 14 | |
| 2 | CONSIDERATIONS IN RETIREMENT INCOME PROJECTIONS | |
| The Concern for Income Security | 17 | |
| Near-Term Policy Options | 25 | |
| Outcome Criteria | 31 | |
| Challenges to Projection Modeling | 34 | |
| 3 | KEY RESEARCH ISSUES | |
| Employer Behavior | 42 | |
| Choices of Families and Individuals | 46 | |
| Health Care Costs | 56 | |
| Conclusion | 57 | |
| 4 | DATA NEEDS | |
| The Lesson from Health Care Reform | 62 | |
| Dimensions of Databases | 68 | |
| Panel Data on Individuals | 70 | |
| Data on Employers | 96 | |
| Expanded Use of Administrative Data | 120 | |
| Data Validation | 124 | |
| 5 | DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT MODELS | |
| Current Models and Their Uses | 133 | |
| Looking to the Future | 140 | |
| Validation | 153 | |
| Near-Term Modeling Strategies | 159 | |
| 6 | FURTHERING COORDINATION FOR DATA COLLECTION, RESEARCH, AND MODELING | |
| Organizational Issues | 165 | |
| Coordination Mechanisms | 167 | |
| Involving the Private Sector and Academia | 170 | |
| APPENDICES | ||
| CONTENTS, ASSESSING KNOWLEDGE OF RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR | ||
| RETIREMENT-INCOME-RELATED DATA SETS | ||
| EXAMPLES OF RETIREMENT-INCOME-RELATED PROJECTION METHODS | ||
| MAJOR ASPECTS OF DYNASIM2 AND PRISM | ||
| REFERENCES | ||
| BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF | ||
| INDEX | ||
